Tennessee Tech Political Science Professor’s analysis of the August 6 election results reflect that Upper Cumberland voters prioritize a consistent preference for reliably conservative leaders.
Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Lauren Harding this trend was evident in the 6th District race where State Representative Johnny Garrett defeated former Congressman Van Hilleary.
“Tennessee voters are looking for fit for the local districts, not just following national priorities,” Harding said. “That Tennessee voters are looking for candidates that have experience and connection in Tennessee politics.”
Harding said the region maintained a high level of continuity by showing strong support for incumbent leaders in the Tennessee General Assembly and local offices. Harding said voters in the Upper Cumberland remain focused on conservative values and candidates who represent the specific values of the district.
“So we see that this race is really, this election is about kind of this debate over the future of conservatism in Tennessee, this divide between kind of this traditional governing conservatism that’s about economic growth, that’s about pro-business policies and infrastructure stability versus kind of this populist and social conservative priority focused on cultural issues and immigration and kind of that the national taglines,” Harding said. “And so we see that that really what was resonating with Upper Cumberland voters were those the traditional conservative values and whether or not a candidate aligned with those values.”
Harding said the Upper Cumberland remains an influential voice in statewide elections despite the rising impact of suburban counties surrounding major cities like Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville. Harding said candidates from smaller jurisdictions face significant challenges in building the name recognition and fundraising base necessary to compete against established statewide figures.
“While John Rose ran a fantastic race, he tightened the race considerably beyond expectations, still Marsha Blackburn was able to overcome with, you know, her strong record of experience and also that stronger base of support with name recognition across the state,” Harding said. “So you know, when a candidate from a a smaller jurisdiction is going for that statewide race they have to really push hard with fundraising and push hard with advertising in order to get their name out there early for that name recognition for voters.”
Harding said the defeat of Congressman Andy Ogles in the 5th District was a surprising outcome that highlighted the importance of candidate fit, as Ogles lost despite receiving an endorsement from Donald Trump. Harding said the ongoing impact of redistricting is expected to shift Tennessee’s congressional delegation to nine Republicans and no Democrats following the general election.
“So even though he had Trump’s endorsement, again it was that fit with voters and that that alignment with Tennessee politics that was the the signal in the end for voters,” Harding said. “And so another thing that kind of is interesting is just how redistricting has played into this election and redistricting did play into Andy Ogles’ defeat in Tennessee’s 5th.”
Harding said new local officials in the Upper Cumberland, including the Cookeville mayor and several new Putnam County Commissioners, will face a learning curve as they begin managing city and county budgets. Harding said these leaders must balance managing regional growth with maintaining community identity and essential services.
“And so you know as they are you know taking their positions and representing voters, they’re going to have to deal with a lot of issues that are important at the local level,” Harding said. “So thinking about housing growth, thinking about roads and traffic and infrastructure and schools, thinking about taxes and public safety.”
Harding said the primary results ensure that Tennessee will elect its first female governor in the fall, as Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Jerry Greene both won their respective primaries. Harding said she expects the next chapter of Tennessee leadership to maintain a strong focus on economic development and business growth.
“And so since both Jerry Greene Democratic candidate elected in the primary and Marsha Blackburn the Republican primary winner will be facing off against one another both women candidates we are sure to have our first woman as governor of Tennessee come the fall elections,” Harding said. “And I think that that is an important moment to celebrate in Tennessee and I think that we will you know continue to see a lot of continuity in Tennessee governance and priorities over the coming years with governor potential governor Marsha Blackburn.”
