A rainy Memorial Day weekend will help the Upper Cumberland, but it may also signal a change coming to our unusually dry spring.
UC Now Chief Meteorologist Rob Carolan said a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring more moisture out way. Carolan said this warming process has been developing since February and is expected to blossom over the next few weeks.
“We think with time some of that additional moisture coming out of the equatorial Pacific will make its way into other parts of the South Central and Southeastern United States, and that could include the Upper Cumberland during the month of June,” Carolan said.
Carolan said the shift should provide relief for areas currently experiencing dry conditions. Carolan said the specific location of the heaviest rainfall depends on where the subtropical jet stream sets up.
“We may go from a situation where we haven’t had enough precipitation to where parts of the country, particularly Texas, Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle, perhaps southern Mississippi and Alabama end up with too much rain in a short period of time, but it certainly looks like there’s going to be a huge dent put in the drought in many of the areas along and east of the Mississippi River,” Carolan said.
Carolan said the vast surface area of the warming Pacific Ocean releases massive amounts of heat energy and moisture into the lower atmosphere. Carolan said this extra energy is then picked up by the subtropical jet stream and pushed across the southern United States.
“El Niño is the opposite: more energy, more warmth, more moisture, and that results in scattered showers and thunderstorms that are probably going to be producing some locally heavy rain over the course of the next several weeks, particularly as we watch moisture move out of the Pacific up across Mexico through Texas and the Gulf Coast,” Carolan said.
Carolan said current projections show the jet lifting northward as the Bermuda High strengthens off the East Coast.
“And I think at some point, may sound strange right now, but we could be dealing where I think the big issue during the summer may be some flash flooding events across parts of the Gulf Coast and the Upper Cumberland,” Carolan said.
Carolan said this El Niño could be the strongest recorded since 2015 and may last through the middle of the winter. Carolan said while the pattern increases rain risks locally, it typically diminishes hurricane activity in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
“We haven’t had a whole lot of rain since the winter got going,” Carolan said. “We’ve had a couple of events, but we may be heading into a much richer regime in regards to shower and thunderstorm activity once we get into the month of June.”
